With the demand for
self-driving vehicle technology accelerating among automakers and
ridesharing businesses, policymakers nationwide have started planning
for what many see as a transportation revolution.
In Delaware, the state Department of Transportation (DelDOT) asked researchers in the University of Delawares Institute for Public Administration
(IPA) to examine what might happen when in the not-so-distant future
vehicles are likely to travel the states roadways without a human at
the wheel.
Were a car culture in the United States, and autonomous vehicles
[AVs] represent a very big change, said Philip Barnes, associate policy
scientist in the IPA who conducted the research with doctoral student
Eli Turkel, an IPA graduate fellow. The old ways of doing things are
going to change, and policies are going to have to change, too.
But, he said, those transportation policy changes wont be defined
until planners know more about the impact AVs will have. Thats the
question Barnes and Turkel addressed in the 35-page report they recently
completed for DelDOT.
The issues examined in the report include such topics as roadway
safety, traffic congestion, jobs and the economy, revenue for state and
local governments and residential development patterns.
We can expect a lot of benefits from the use of AVs, but there are a
lot of challenges and potential negative impacts, too, Barnes said.
In the report, he points out that Ford has said it will be selling
AVs in the next five years and that most analysts expect modest sales of
such vehicles by the late 2020s. Those same analysts predict
widespread adoption of the technology through the 2030s and 40s.
In exploring the effects of what the report calls the impending
autonomous vehicle revolution in Delaware, highway safety tops most
observers list of potential benefits. With a recent average of about
100 traffic fatalities annually in Delaware, the state could reasonably
expect widespread use of AVs to save a significant number of lives each
year, as the vehicles guidance systems recognize the need to slow down,
stop or change lanes in time to avoid accidents.
That same technology will mean a decrease in congestion, Barnes said,
with traffic flowing easily around lane closures and other obstacles
and merging smoothly without the usual stop-and-go pattern that human
drivers follow.
Predictions are that AV passengers will have faster and more
productive commutes to work with time behind the wheel replaced by
time to read, work or nap in the passenger seat. Thats a positive
impact, Barnes said, but urban planners wonder if the long-term effect
will be increased suburban sprawl as commuting becomes less unpleasant
and workers are willing to move farther from their job sites.
For another group, individuals with disabilities that prevent or
restrict their own driving, AVs will mean being able to own a car and
travel independently.
Barnes noted that this very independence raises more policy
questions: Will the state still need to issue drivers licenses? If not,
will there be an age limit for riding in an AV, or will 10-year-olds be
able to take themselves to soccer practice? And will the cost of buying
a new AV create a two-tiered system where lower-income people wont
share in the immediate benefits?
Another policy issue addressed in the report is the revenue that
governments now receive from fines paid for traffic violations, a source
of income that could virtually disappear with no drivers to break the
law. The insurance industry also needs to consider how to adjust to a
future with few traffic accidents other than those potentially caused by
a technology failure, Barnes said.
In Delaware, the report notes, DelDOT has implemented technological
and infrastructure improvements that position the state well in
preparing for testing, operation and deployment of AVs.
If action is taken now, Delaware could position itself to be a
leader in the autonomous vehicle area, the report concludes,
recommending an accelerated pace of planning and coordination among
state agencies.
A copy of the report is available here.
About the Institute for Public Administration
Established in 1973, the institute is now part of the School of Public Policy and Administration in UDs College of Arts and Sciences.
IPA works with numerous partners to address their policy, planning
and management needs through the integration of applied research,
professional development and the education of tomorrows leaders. It
provides direct staff assistance, research, policy analysis, training
and forums while contributing to the scholarly body of knowledge in
public administration.
IPA leads programs including The Democracy Project and the
Legislative Fellows program and is involved in such policy areas as
education, health, transportation, local government training, planning
and economic development.
Article by Ann Manser; photo by Kathy F. Atkinson
