Its a great response to anyone who says managed retreat is too hard or no one will accept it, no one will participate. Well, here: Tens of thousands of homeowners have accepted it, and more than 1,000 counties have accepted it and figured it out, Siders said. Yes, we need to learn more about how it can be done, how it can be improved, but the baseline of just, it can be done, is good visibility.
And by examining the risk and demographic characteristics of the 1,100 counties that administered buyouts, the research team was able to build a detailed roadmap for future critical research on equity, race and other topics.
Siders recently answered questions about the study.
Q: What made you and your team look at the FEMA buyouts?
Siders: Managed retreat is a hot topic, but its also data starved. Theres so little information out that any data point that comes out in the managed retreat literature is really exciting. The most obvious starting point for us seemed to be, lets see whats been done. Where have they happened, how have they been done, whos doing them, whos not, hows it working out. Before FEMA can scale this up or change the program, they need to know how its worked so far.
Q: What are the key findings?
Siders: One is that managed retreat is happening all over the United States, in 49 states. Thats a really big finding for me because it means no matter how difficult it is to do managed retreat, theres 1,100 counties that have figured out how to do it. So that makes me optimistic.
Another is that we found that counties that are more affluent and denser are using buyouts more, and that was surprising because the economic models suggest buyouts should be happening in rural places. Which makes sense: If youre in a rural area it probably doesnt make sense to put in miles of seawalls to protect one home. So the models had suggested that the buyouts should have been occurring in rural, less dense, less affluent areas and instead we were finding the opposite.
However, although our data showed that local governments in counties with higher population and income were more likely to administer buyouts, the bought-out properties were actually concentrated in areas of greater social vulnerability within those counties.
Q: What are the implications of the findings?
Siders: The findings point to concerns about equity. Richer, denser counties might be using buyouts more because they have the staff and resources to navigate FEMAs bureaucracy. That could be a problem for small, rural areas that want to retreat.
The fact that rich, dense counties are buying up homes in low-income neighborhoods is that a good thing or a bad thing? Lower-income communities might be in riskier areas, and they may be less able to recover after a disaster, so relocating could be a good decision. Or it could be a problem with the program. We know the issue is widespread theyre not symptoms of one racist place, or one deviant mayor. This is a widespread, systematic issue. And thats why its worthy of trying to solve whether or not its harmful.
Q: What does the study say about the effectiveness of the FEMA buyouts?
Siders: The good news is that buyouts are happening in places that are at-risk and have experienced damage in recent disasters. So that tells us the program really is helping people in risky places, as it was designed to do.
There are still open questions, though. Right now this program puts no restrictions on where people move after a buyout. So in one case study that looked at the post-Sandy Staten Island buyouts, 20 percent of people moved into other floodplains. So theyre just as at risk as they were before. The program isnt even requiring people to move back, it could be moving them sideways. Moving sideways along the coast doesnt help you.
Q: Where are the buyouts most common?
Siders: In North Carolina, there were 7,000 properties. Thats a lot. Compared to 40,000 across the United States, 7,000 in one state thats a big chunk of it. Maybe not surprisingly considering North Carolinas exposure. Florida is not using buyouts as much, which opens up comparative research. What is it about Florida thats limiting the scope? What is it about North Carolina thats enabling it? Houston has one of the largest buyout programs in the U.S. Delaware, meanwhile, is doing very little.
A lot of the research is focused on what makes homeowners say yes or no to a buyout offer. I think theres a lot more research that needs to happen on what makes a government decide to make an offer in the first place.
Q: Whats the next step?
Siders: Were hoping the piece is a call to action in that it shows that managed retreat is happening, it tests a couple of hypotheses, and opens up a lot of really interesting questions that are not answered, but could be answered. OK, theres a big equity concern. You know what we need? We need more research on why this is turning out this way and whether or not thats a good thing. Thats a wide-open research field requiring lots of case studies. And it wont all be done by us.
